
26 August 2023
Why house prices are set to soar for two more years - before they CRASH, claims expert who accurately predicted property market collapse in 2008 AND 1990s
As mortgage rates rocket to a two-decade high and buyers face the least affordable market in recent memory, alarm bells have been ringing over an imminent house price crash.
But one expert insists there is no need to panic - yet. Economist Fred Harrison, who accurately predicted the last two global property crashes, claims real estate will keep going up in value until 2026 - before they come plummeting down.
Harrison is a pioneer of the '18-year house price cycle theory' which claims a crash only occurs 18 years after the last one began.
His hypothesis, which is based on 1930s research on business cycles in Chicago, has yet to prove him wrong.
In his book, The Power in the Land, published in 1983, Harrison, correctly forecast property prices would peak in 1989 as well as the recession that followed.
In 2005, he published Boom Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010, which successfully forecast the 2007 peak in house prices and ensuing crash.
His most recent book We Are Rent claims prices will peak in 2026 before a recession occurs that will eclipse the events of 2008.
Harrison alleges that the only thing that can disrupt the cycle is a world war. Even the pandemic - which poured gasoline on the property market - was not enough to take the trend off its current trajectory.
The British author told DailyMail.com: 'During the pandemic we saw these huge increases in house prices. That was because the Government gave households big sums of money to keep the economy afloat - and most of this money ended up in the housing market.
'Now we are seeing house prices drop slightly and people say a crash is coming. But actually if you look at the long-term trend what we are seeing now is just a correction.
'Prices are going up, just not as quickly as they were before.'
Harrison insists that the global housing market is 'synchronized' and that the UK and US will undergo a crash at the same time.
He expects this will begin in 2026 and end in 2028 - 20 years after the last one.
Harrison says a 'substantial decline' in property prices is coming - though he says he cannot speculate on exact figures.
He insists the 18-year cycle can be traced back for 300 years. The pattern begins with a crash that lasts for about two years before entering a 'recovery' phase which lasts for six or seven years and sees prices undergo modest growth.
After that there is a sustained price growth for nine years which is broken up for a year or two by a 'mid-cycle dip.'
At this point a crash ensues and the cycle begins again.
Harrison is unable to pinpoint exactly why 18 is the magic number but his most plausible explanation suggests it is determined by interest rates.
The record low interest rates of the last decade have seen house prices soar. However, with the Fed's benchmark rate now set between 5.25 and 5.5 percent, this will have a delayed knock-on effect on house prices, Harrison explained.
He estimates that the cycle is the same length of time it takes a borrower to pay off the interest on a 5 percent loan. At this point the cycle begins again.
His comments come after it was revealed housing affordability in the US is now worse than it was in 2006 as buyers face a perfect storm of high mortgage rates and elevated house prices.
Figures from the Atlanta Federal Reserve show that affordability has fallen below levels seen during the housing bubble peak in the lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis.
The Atlanta Fed uses house prices, mortgage rates and average incomes to calculate an 'affordability' score each month. The latest figures, from June 2023, show the score has plunged to 69.5 - nearly 40 points below where it was in June 2020.
The report also does not take into account mortgage rates, which have shot up again in August. It means this month is likely to become the worst month for housing affordability of the century, according to estimates by Fortune.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/property/article-12446057/Why-house-prices-set-soar-two-years-CRASH-claims-expert-accurately-predicted-property-market-collapse-2008-1990s.html

16 August 2023
Not all housing can be purchased by foreigners, here are the types
Jakarta - The government has issued regulations regarding foreign citizens (WNA) to have residence only with immigration documents, such as a passport, visa or residence permit. However, foreigners can buy not all housing.
The intended occupancy is a commercial house or flat, not a subsidized one. Based on the Ministerial Regulation (Permen) ATR/Head of BPN Number 18 of 2021 concerning Procedures for Determining Management Rights and Land Rights Article 186 paragraph 1, it is stated that ownership of residential houses or residences for foreigners is limited to landed houses:
1. Houses in the category of luxury homes in accordance with statutory provisions
2. (1) one plot of land per person/family
3. The maximum land area is 2,000 m2
However, if it has a positive impact on the economy and social, a landed house can be provided with more than a plot of land or an area of more than 2,000 m2 with the permission of the minister. In detail, landed houses that can be owned by foreigners are on land with Right of Use over State Land, Right to Use over Right of Ownership which is controlled based on a Right to Use agreement over Right of Ownership with a deed from the Land Deed Making Officer (PPAT), or it can also be on Management Rights based on land use agreements with Management Rights holders.
In the same Ministerial Regulation, it is stated in article 185, part b, that flats that can be purchased by foreigners are flats built on plots of land with Right to Use or Right to Build on State Land, Right to Use or Right to Use Building on Land, Right to Management, or Right to Use. or Building Use Rights on Freehold land.
In the same regulation in article 187 paragraph 2, it is stated that housing that foreigners can purchase is in the form of purchasing a new house/unit or an old house/unit and the price of the house or residence is determined by a Ministerial Decree.
https://www.detik.com/properti/berita/d-6879108/nggak-all-hunian-bisa-dibeli-wna-ini-tipe

08 August 2023
Fill in the 2024 Tax Return Automatically? Here's the explanation
Jakarta CNBC Indonesia - Taxpayers will no longer experience the hassle of filling out an Annual Tax Return (SPT) starting in 2025. This is because filling out the SPT for the 2024 tax year will be more practical.
Taxpayers, both individual taxpayers and business entities, no longer need to enter tax data one by one and calculate it themselves. The Directorate General of Taxes (DJP) system will allow taxpayers to obtain prepopulated SPT or SPT with data presented automatically.
This sophisticated system developed by DGT is the core tax system or the Renewal of the Tax Administration Core System (PSIAP). Through the core tax system, taxpayers will gain access to tax payer accounts which contain tax liability data, starting from SPT to asset data and other tax transactions.
Meanwhile, prepopulated taxpayer data is drawn from various agencies including banking, local government, customs, BKPM and other institutions. DGT will partner with 89 entities to integrate their systems with the core system.
Expert Staff to the Minister of Finance for Tax Regulations and Law Enforcement, Iwan Djuniardi, explained that the concept of prepopulated SPT will be visible from the withholding receipts that are released. If the proof of withholding data is correct, please confirm and submit the tax directly.
"If it's true, just 'yes..yes..yes', if it's not true, just fix it," he told CNBC Indonesia, quoted Tuesday (8/8/2023).
However, if there are other incomes that have not been listed, Iwan emphasized that taxpayers must report this.
"It's not filled in by the tax office, as if it were the DJP. Because there is other income data, for example shop data and others, we haven't taken it. We haven't taken the underground data," stressed Iwan.
If the core tax is running, Iwan said that some data will be included in the SPT. For example, the tax on house rent or boarding house rent.
"In the past, it wasn't included, even though the tax was 10%," he said. So far, everything depends on honesty. In the new system, DGT can look through the taxpayer's assets.
"How come this asset is silent. We can calculate the cost of the asset. Or maybe this asset is rented out," he said. All of this data will be entered into the taxpayer's tax payer account which is loaded in the core tax system and can be seen by the taxpayer. If there is an error in asset data, Iwan said that taxpayers can contact the tax office.
"There is a call center, but there must be evidence," he stressed.
The plan is that this system will start running fully on May 1 2024. Currently, this sophisticated system is still undergoing testing. The Directorate General of Taxes must ensure that the modules of the 21 business functions in the core tax system run well and correctly.
"The modules were tested, there were things that weren't justified. Now it's just per module. We're starting to test whether there are any missing functions. This is still being enriched," he explained.
After the enrichment phase, then enter the integrated testing system. This was done in order to connect 21 modules that had been tested previously.
Iwan ensures that this phase also takes a long time. Meanwhile, 21 tax service business processes have been processed from manual to automatic based on technology, namely. management of Tax Returns (SPT), document management system (DMS), taxpayer services, assessment services, supervision, extensification, tax collection, investigations, objections and appeals.
https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20230808054749-4-460967/isi-spt-pajak-2024-automat-begini-pengjualannya

31 July 2023
Profit and Loss Property Investment
Jakarta - Making money from property assets can be the dream of many people. But, you need to understand first the pros and cons of investing in the property sector.
Quoted from Aesia, Sunday (31/07/2023), there are opportunities and challenges that need to be your attention so that you are not surprised when you are faced with risks when investing in property.
By knowing the investment opportunities and challenges in this sector, you can also set a better strategy so that the profits you generate can be maximized.
Profit Property Investment
Transparent and Scalable
Property investment has advantages that are different from other investments. This investment is physically transparent so that the results are clearly visible. In addition, we can control more as holders of property investments than we do with other investments such as stocks and cryptocurrencies
Excess income
By investing in property, your income has the potential to be more than the instruments you invest. Reporting from On Property (onproperty.com.au), financial cash flow can run smoothly with you leasing assets to consumers and the result of this leasing is that your income will increase.
Minimal Risk
For beginners who are just starting to invest with large expenditures, property investment can be a low-risk option because the value of instrument flows in property is not sensitive and lower than investments such as stocks or crypto.
Stable market
Property investment has a stable flow and is not tight. According to Loan Market, this investment model has the potential to return on investment and is easier for investors.
Property Investment Losses
Apart from opportunities, property investment will still have challenges that must be faced during the course of this investment. So that this challenge also needs to be considered so that you can manage the process and risks in future plans. Therefore, the challenges that have the potential to occur and must be faced can be seen from the following list.
Big Capital
Starting a property investment even though it has a high opportunity and low risk, the capital prepared is large enough to own the property you want. It is possible that the property facilities obtained are inversely proportional to the capital you spend, even with a strategy and a large property value for the capital issued.
Expensive Treatment
Property maintenance costs require quite a large amount of capital because the shape of the property must still look attractive and have long-lasting properties such as leak resistance, no termites, and have an environment that attracts consumers.
Hard to Sell
If you are just starting to invest in property, don't expect to get occupants right away because the investment process is quite slow and quite difficult in marketing, when compared to stocks or crypto. Therefore, if you want liquidity quickly, such as an emergency fund need, then there is a possibility that the property's valuation can be lower than market quality.
https://www.detik.com/properti/tips-dan-panduan/d-6851831/untung-rugi-investasi-properti

25 July 2023
Capital City Moves to Kalimantan, Jakarta Property What Will Happen?
Jakarta - Next year, the capital city of Indonesia will move from Jakarta to the National Capital (IKN) of the Archipelago in East Kalimantan. Will this affect apartment sales in Jakarta?
According to JLL Indonesia's Head of Research, Yunus Karim, the move to the capital city will not necessarily affect the property market in Jakarta, especially apartments. According to him, the apartment market will still exist in the future because apartments are still considered as a product for investment plus there will be end users or buyers who will occupy the apartments.
"It depends on how many will move (to IKN) because we know this is in stages, yes, the government has indeed launched a program to move to the capital city of Kalimantan but from year and in the short term, in the near horizon we have not seen this have a significant impact to the property market in Jakarta," he said at the Jakarta Property Market Overview Q2 2023 press conference, Tuesday (25/7/2023).
Indeed, currently the cumulative sales of apartments in Jakarta are still relatively stagnant at around 61%. This is not much different from selling apartments 4-5 years ago.
"Usually apartments are used as an investment instrument and currently what is happening is that many buyers wait and see regarding the existing investment conditions and indeed those who are still active in looking for apartments are those for living or end users. So in terms of demand it is still relatively soft," said Yunus.
Currently, apartment projects that are of concern to prospective buyers are those that have good locations and access, then developers who have shown a commitment to complete the construction of apartments, and have competition (price) that is not too high. One way to increase apartment occupancy, the rental prices offered also tend to be similar, aka there has been no increase over the last few years.
"Developers who finally show their commitment or sell attractively, for example having a show unit by giving an idea to buyers what kind of concept will be applied to their apartments in the future, are more attractive to buyers," he said.
Going forward, according to Yunus, end users will be more active in buying apartments in Jakarta. Currently, around 31,500 apartments are marketed in Jakarta.
https://www.detik.com/properti/berita/d-6840241/ibu-kota-transfer-ke-kalimantan-properti-jakarta-gimana-nasibnya

09 June 2023
The ten richest suburbs in Australia
The richest postcodes in Australia
The Australian Tax Office (ATO) has released its taxation statistics for the 2020-21 financial year.
Included in the data is a list of the postcodes whose residents have the highest average taxable income. The top ten is dominated by suburbs in Sydney with water views, with a couple from Victoria and one lone entry from Western Australia.
Here's the top ten.
10. 2088: Mosman, Spit Junction (NSW)
9. 2063: Northbridge (NSW)
8. 2025: Woollahra (NSW)
7. 2027: Darling Point, Edgecliff, HMAS Rushcutters, Point Piper (NSW)
6. 2023: Bellevue Hill (NSW)
5. 3944: Portsea (Victoria)
4. 3142: Hawksburn, Toorak (Victoria)
3. 6011: Cottesloe, Peppermint Grove (WA)
2. 2030: Dover Heights, HMAS Watson, Rose Bay North, Vaucluse, Watsons Bay (NSW)
1. 2028: Double Bay (NSW)
Please continue reading on the link below:
https://www.9news.com.au/national/ten-richest-suburbs-australia-ato-tax-statistics/9bc95d07-b506-4ca5-a5dd-99b62cf15c6f#11

26 April 2023
Singapore announces new property cooling measures, additional buyer's stamp duty doubled to 60% for foreigners
SINGAPORE: Foreigners buying any residential property in Singapore from Thursday (Apr 27) will have to pay an additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD) of 60 per cent after it was doubled from 30 per cent.
This was the steepest increase among the cooling measures the government announced late on Wednesday night.
Singaporeans buying their second residential property will pay an ABSD rate of 20 per cent, up from 17 per cent, while those buying their third and subsequent residential property will have to pay an increased rate of 30 per cent, up from 25 per cent.
The rate of 30 per cent also applies to permanent residents buying their second residential property. PRs buying their third and subsequent residential property will pay an ABSD of 35 per cent, up from 30 per cent.
This is the third round of cooling measures since December 2021.
The increases in ABSD are to "promote a sustainable property market and prioritise housing for owner-occupation", said the Ministry of Finance (MOF), the Ministry of National Development (MND) and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) in a joint statement on Wednesday night.
They noted that the earlier measures in December 2021 and September 2022 have had a "moderating effect". However, property prices in the first quarter of 2023 showed "renewed signs of acceleration amid resilient demand".
“Demand from locals purchasing homes for owner-occupation has been especially strong, and there has also been renewed interest from local and foreign investors in our residential property market," said the authorities.
"If left unchecked, prices could run ahead of economic fundamentals, with the risk of a sustained increase in prices relative to incomes.”
Based on 2022 data, the ABSD rate increases will affect about 10 per cent of residential property transactions.
The ABSD rates for Singapore citizens and permanent residents purchasing their first residential property - which constitutes about 90 per cent of residential property transactions based on 2022 data - will remain at 0 per cent and 5 per cent respectively.
For acquisitions made jointly by two or more parties of different profiles, MOF, MND and MAS said the highest applicable ABSD rate will apply.
Married couples with at least one Singaporean spouse, who jointly purchase a second residential property, can continue to apply for a refund of ABSD, subject to conditions.
These conditions include selling their first residential property within six months after the date of purchase of the second residential property if it is a completed property, or the issue date of the Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) or Certificate of Statutory Completion (CSC) of the second residential property, whichever is earlier, if the second property is not completed at the time of purchase.
The ABSD currently does not affect those buying a Housing and Development Board (HDB) flat or executive condominium unit from housing developers with an upfront remission, if any of the joint acquirers or purchasers is a Singapore citizen. There will be no change to this policy.
Please keep reading on:
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/property-cooling-measures-absd-additional-buyers-stamp-duty-doubled-foreigners-increase-3446376

18 April 2023
Melbourne overtakes Sydney as Australia's biggest city
BBC News, Sydney
Melbourne has overtaken Sydney as Australia's most populous city for the first time since the 19th Century gold rush, following a boundary change.
Sydney has proudly held the title for more than 100 years.
But with populations rapidly growing on Melbourne's fringe, the city limits have been expanded to include the area of Melton.
The latest government figures, from June 2021, put Melbourne's population at 4,875,400 - 18,700 more than Sydney.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) defines a city's "significant urban area", by including all connecting suburbs with more than 10,000 people.
"With the amalgamation of Melton into Melbourne in the latest... classification, Melbourne has more people than Sydney - and has had since 2018, " the ABS's Andrew Howe told the Sydney Morning Herald newspaper - which described the redrawn boundary as "a technicality".
Proud Sydneysiders will point to the ABS's conclusion that when looking at the greater Sydney and Melbourne regions, Sydney remained bigger in June 2021.
Greater regions of a city take into account its "functional area", the ABS says, and include populations who frequent or work within the city, but may live in small towns and rural areas surrounding it.
Census reveals how Australia is changing
However the federal government predicts Greater Melbourne will overtake Greater Sydney in 2031-32.
Melbourne's rapid growth is largely thanks to international migration, Australian National University demographer Liz Allen told the BBC.
Dr Allen noted that unlike Sydney, which has a "historical hangover" of a time when "it didn't want to be seen as anything other than white", Melbourne has a reputation for celebrating diversity.
It is also an attractive migration destination as it has employment and education opportunities comparable to Sydney, but has historically been more affordable than the harbour-side city.
It's not the first time Melbourne has held the title of Australia's biggest city.
As a result of the gold rush in the late 19th Century, which saw migrants flock to the state of the Victoria, Melbourne grew rapidly and outnumbered Sydney until 1905.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-65261720

04 April 2023
Singapore’s public transport system is second best in Asia And that’s according to locals4
In a recent survey, Time Out hit the streets to ask the locals of different cities the big question, “Is it easy to get around your city by public transport?” More than 20,000 people gave their two cents, and the results – drum roll please – had Singapore ranked the second best in Asia.
We’ve come a long way since our beginnings. In 1978, the Singapore Bus Service established its first bus interchange at Jurong Road, and in 1987, the Land Transport Authority first launched the five-station segment that stretches from Toa Payoh to Yio Chu Kang.
Today, 140 stations across six Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) lines connect the island, with a daily ridership of over three million. Let’s not forget the 40 stations across the two Light Rail Transit (LRT) lines, catered to citizens who live slightly further from the main train stations, which also sees over 200,000 daily ridership. Our buses also boast a fleet of more than 3,400 buses, operating more than 220 bus services, providing convenience even when travelling to the corners of Singapore that are not as accessible by train.
Besides having a well connected system, there are other perks like the SBS Transit Mobile application that provides real time bus arrival timings. Our iconic landmarks and hottest attractions are also mostly a stone’s throw away from the local stations, making the commute around Singapore a convenient one.
You’ll be shocked to know that in this survey, Singapore ranked above Hong Kong. Tokyo, on the other hand, unsurprisingly ranks first in Asia.
https://www.timeout.com/singapore/news/singapores-public-transport-system-is-second-best-in-asia-040423